Archive for May, 2011

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of June 2011

May 30, 2011

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA RFC

Contact Information:    leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

     The month of May has nearly concluded. We have been informed by the US Secretary of the Treasury that on May 16th our government reached its debt limit of $14.294 trilion dollars. The Secretary informs us also that there is no immediate danger of default and that the federal government will curtail funding of employee retirement accounts to avoid such an event. This strategy will give the Congress and the Executive up into August to work out a solution to the debt issue. The history of the debt limit issue is long and interesting to observe. The first time a limit was set is in 1917 at a level of $11.5 billion dollars according to the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget. To gain a prospective on how government has been managing its business, one must note that since 1962, the government has raised its debt limit 74 times with 10 of those actions happening in the just ended decade. What is next? Who knows??

     A part of that national debt is owed  to the Social Security trust fund. The Social Security system in this country was established in 1935 with the institution of the FICA tax in 1937. Benefits were first issued beginning 1940. On inception, participation was voluntary. The tax was 1% of the first $1,400 of income and was tax-deductible. Today it is 6.2% of the first $106,800 of income with no tax deduction and participation is mandatory. In 1939, benefits were established for spouse and children of a participating worker in the event of a premature death. The concept of cost of living benefit enhancements was introduced in 1951 and became an automatic function without an act of the Congress in 1972. The addition of disability benefits occurred in 1954 and early retirement at age 62 was added in 1961. Originally, the trust fund was dedicated only to the Social Security program. Under the Johnson administration, in the 1960’s, the fund was placed in the general fund and replaced with government debt obligations which pay interest to the fund. We are told that the system can perform at the current level of benefits until 2036 since Social Security spends more than it takes in. This trend is continuing since due to the poor state of the economy with high unemployment, tax revenues are down. Along with this fact, the baby boomer generation is at retirement age. The trend toward fewer workers supporting the program for a growing number of retirees is evident. The system’s Board of Trustees reports that over the next 75 years, $6.5 trillion in additional revenue will be needed for it to meet projected obligations. It is clear that program adjustments will eventually have to be made to sustain operations.

     So when should an individual begin to take Social Security benefits? The answer to this question is guided by many issues and personal factors from individual to individual. Approximately 40% of those eligible are taking benefits at age 62 due to unemployment, disability or a perceived lack of need to work. Those who chose this path and are claiming a benefit based on their own work record as opposed to that of a spouse, will see a 25% reduction in benefit as compared to the benefit available at full retirement age which currently is 66 or 67 depending on your birth year. For each year that the individual postpones retirement after full retirement age, the system adds 8% to the benefit level up to the age of 70. Along with COLAs, this could be a generous return for  waiting to take a benefit. Many wonder what is the break even point (at what age am I ahead of the benefit game) regarding the decision over when to begin taking benefits. This depends on many factors including income levels during the working years and longevity. It is also important to consider  what portion of  your Social Security benefit may be taxable. If you have income of $25,000 or $34,000 if married and filing a 1040 jointly, 85% of your benefit is taxable.

     The decision regarding Social Security benefit timing is important and should be examined in the context of the conditions exhibited above. It is a good idea to work with a financial planner on such issues.

For the Record:

DJIA                   12,441.58

NASDAQ             2,796.86

S&P 500             1,331.10

Suggested Reading:        

“Contemporary Financial Management” By Moyer, McGuigan and Kretlow

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of May 2011

May 1, 2011

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA RFC

Contact Information:

leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

     And the beat goes on. Hopefully we have all submitted our 1040 form for the 2010 year on time or filed for an extension. Conflict internationally is spreading to more muslim countries while the US Congress debates budget reductions, tax reform and the debt ceiling.  Along  with all of this, we have the revelation of the President’s birth certificate and the political comedy surrounding this issue. More and more it is becoming apparent that our government is on the verge of dysfunction in my opinion. Those whom we send to Washington D C to represent us seem to forget why they are there from time to time. Much of the problem with the Congress and the executive has to do with members’ focus. The main focus is raising money for reelection efforts. This activity goes on from day one in the life of a member of Congress and never seems to end. I wonder sometimes what is the difference between a contribution to my congressman and a bribe to a government official in China, Mexico or Afghanistan. The indebtedness that members of Congress and the executive have to donors has created a paralysis within the body and within the system. The main driver of the decisions made in the Congress is money. This causes much of what goes on there to be suspect in my opinion.  We are seeing this problem in real-time with the activities occurring as a result of labor unions’ influence on the Congress and state legislatures due to labors’ financial support of politicians. Politicians vote benefits to public union members without consideration for appropriate funding on a regular basis. This trend is very apparent given the financial condition of many government entities as a result of reduced revenue flows. The money is just not there to support these benefits and was not adequately provided from the institution of many of these benefit programs. Many individuals who counted on the integrity and reliability of their government employer, will be disappointed. The solution to this dynamic escapes me. Do any of you have a suggestion?

     I picked up on a study done by Fidelity which should interest every reader because you are near or at the age or have parents who are. Fidelity says that a 65-year-old couple will spend $230,000 in out-of-pocket healthcare costs into their future. 31% will go toward Medicare Part B and D premiums, 45% toward noncovered expenses and 24% for noncovered prescription expenses. If you have the time, prepare for this. If your family members cannot, help them.

     I find the rhetoric on alternative energy sources very entertaining sometimes. If we dedicate ourselves to focus on the facts, we will continue to have a realistic view of what is represented as economic benefit of a green future. Bloomberg News proudly pronounces that large photovoltaic projects will cost $1.45 a watt to build by 2020. This represents a 50% decline in costs  over current expense. The fact is that coal generated power costs 7 cents per kilowatt-hour while natural gas generation costs 6 cents per-kilowatt hour as compared to 22.3 cents per-killowatt hour for solar. It seems to me that we have a long way to go before solar is cost-effective even if the capital investment for installation decreases by 50% over the next ten years.

     I admit to the reader a very negative attitude toward government at present along with great criticism of public policy initiatives that are currently being generated, but do not apologize for such a posture. Part of the mission of this blog is to share information from sources which most readers do not usually access or even recognize in order to give a rounded prospective on the economic environment. Many of us are having a difficult time trying to plan future strategies for our personal economic well-being and for the prosperity of our business interests. Part of the problem is the misinformation from which most of us base our judgments and projections. I know that I promised to cover Social Security, retirement savings issues and insurance and bank savings products  and will do so in future writings, but this last piece for this blog was just too good to pass up or delay. Investopedia’s Financial Edge recently talked about the ” 5 Government Statistics You Can’t Trust”:

1. Unemployment—–The quoted rate is not accurate because it does not include those who are unemployed and so discourage with their failure to gain employment that they have stopped looking. This index is under reported.

2. Inflation—–The collection of goods on which price inflation is based continues to change. Current calculations take into consideration the substitution philosophy which states that as certain items get more expensive, people will substitute less expensive items. This clearly understates the true nature of inflation.

3. Gross domestic Product—–On the positive side, household work, volunteerism and the underground economy are not counted while on the negative side, the cost of crime and natural disasters is not counted. What does an accurate GDP look like?

4. Retail Sales—-This index follows dollar value of sales and not changes in unit volume. Therefore, inventory  turnover which is a driver for fabrication is a missing element. Increasing sales could just be a product of inflation.

5. Deficit Accounting—–The US Government uses a cash accounting system rather than the accrual accounting system used by businesses. The 2010 deficit was calculated as $1.3trillion under the cash system while if accrual under GAAP was used, it would be $2.1trillion. Deficits are clearly understated. Would you invest in a corporation that did its accounting this way?

It appears that economic reporting by government is not truly representative of actual conditions. Be critical! Ask questions and do you own analysis before taking action!!

For The Record:

DJIA                   12810.54

NASDQ               2873.54

S&P 500            1363.61

Suggested Reading:        “Race For Relevance” By Coerver and Byers