Leone,s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of February 2013

February 2, 2013

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA CFP RFC

Contact Information:

leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

We are one month into the year 2013. It will be a very interesting and somewhat challenging year. Equity markets are off to a great start. Is this sustainable? The politics out of Washington is dramatic and unpredictable to say the least. Such issues as fire arms, immigration, debt, budget and new Cabinet appointments have occupied the media.

Positive influences on the economy and financial markets are as follows:

expansionary monetary conditions due to actions by the Federal Reserve Bank, respectable corporate balance sheets, fixed income market yields which are very low due to actions by the Federal Reserve Bank, a stable inflationary environment, prospects for positive future corporate earnings and respectable equity valuations. PE ratios at 13.5 for the S&P 500 are below historic averages.

The potential negative pressures on financial markets and the economy rest with the following in my opinion:

global unrest geopolitically which could put added pressure on US resources and perhaps interrupt energy supplies along with depressing global demand for US and other products and the very actions which our own US Congress may or may not take this year regarding fiscal policy matters and budget issues. Health care reform is very much in the mix since we are seeing the beginning elements of implementation.

Will investors’ sentiment be a factor? The trend over the past few years to adopt a posture which is risk averse seems to be shrinking with better equity performance and low fixed income yields. Will the volatility we have been experiencing the past few years in equity markets continue and be a factor in investment decisions?

Only time will tell the vitality of the economy, GDP growth and equity market advances. I’ll be watching and reporting what I see and find to you monthly.

Regarding tax issues, become familiar with the structure of phase-outs on personal exemptions and itemized deductions. Learn about the AMT fix and gift tax increases and  for estate taxes .

For The Record:

DJIA                  14,009.79

NASDAQ            3,979.10

S&P 500             1,513.17

Suggested Reading:  “Golden Dawn” by Kostigen

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of January 2013

January 6, 2013

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA CFP RFC

Contact Information: leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

      It is January 6th at the time of this writing. It was important to me that the Holiday Season focus on family. It was also important to allow the news media to spread the word for a few days on H.R. 8 (the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012) before I choose to comment. This was a vote to maintain the status quo. There is no tax relief  here as the title implies. For those at higher income levels ($400k single, $450k joint), marginal tax rates, capital gains rates and qualified dividend tax rates are increased. The payroll tax cut which in my opinion, should never have been instituted given the economic status of the programs it supports, has been discontinued. Expense reductions contained in the sequestration strategy have been delayed. The legislation states that marginal tax rates and the estate and gift tax structure are permanent. They are only permanent until Congress wants to change them in my opinion.

     So what does all of this mean for us? I suspect that although we are in a week economic recovery, that the recovery will continue at a slow pace with high unemployment, stunted consumer demand and increasing inflation along with a gradual increase in interest rates. It is likely that even if the tax code is revised and the federal budget, if ever established, can be reduced that impact of these actions will not be visible for two or three years. Fiscal policy is on hold, but monetary policy is blasting along. Liquidity in the economy is essential and has improved the banking system. The price for continued aggressive Federal Reserve action will be higher interest rates, higher inflation and higher taxes. Taxes and interest rates go up during periods of high inflation to take away the driver of the inflation which is excessive consumer demand as a result of the increase amount of currency they possess even though it buys less. We definitely need clear communication from government and credible data on the results of government actions. Examples of the miss information we are receiving are as follows:

1. The calculation of unemployment is a moving target. If we were calculating unemployment today as we did in the early 1990s, it would be 23%.

2. For the year 2011, CPI was 1.1 percent. Consumer expense inflation was 2.7 percent. Which one of these numbers represents the impact of inflation on the citizen best?

3. The cost of future obligations of the Federal Government is somewhere between $77 trillion and $200 trillion depending on the source of information. What is the real number and what does it really mean? 

     We face many risks to establishment of a more vital economy. These risks are both domestic and global. Here at home, the new 77,000 pages of federal regulations to be imposed this year along with the impact on insurance premiums resulting from the Affordabe Care Act will place a drag on the economy. The potential issues surrounding the federal debt limit and appropriate federal expense reductions in the current political environment can be a big problem. It will be interesting to observe the effects of these potential risks and the evolving remedies. On the global front, we have much less influence on mitigation of potential risks. The economic status of the Euro Zone, unrest in the Middle East, slowing economies in emerging markets and a potential for accelerating energy prices can have meaningful impact on the US economy. Do we have the international posture to exert some influence on such events if they turn in a negative direction?

     There is a birthday to celebrate this year!! Both the Federal Reserve Bank and the IRS are 100 years old. These agencies are very powerful tools in the hands of politicians. In the above paragraphs, the influence that tax rates have over economic growth are evident. The Federal Reserve has a charge to control inflation. In 1913 if you had $1, you would need $23.61 today to have the same purchasing power. It will be interesting to observe the nature of any celebrations of these entities give their high-profile in the news at this current time.

For The Record:

DJIA                    13,435.21

NASDAQ             3,101.66

S&P 500             1,466.47

Suggested Reading:

“Quantitative Investment Analysis” by De Fusco, Mc Leavey, Pinto, Runkle

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of December 2012

December 1, 2012

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA CFP RFC

Contact Information: leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

     Well the election process is complete, but the speculation on what the future holds is still perpetuating. What do you think the economy holds for us as the near future unfolds?

     The direction of the economy will be of key concern in many US households. David Francis of Yahoo Finance writes that in 2010 the average American wage index was $41,673.83 while household credit card debt averaged $15,956 along with home mortgage payments averaging between $700 and $1,700 per month. In addition, most Americans borrow to purchase a car. This burden is about 8% to 11% of monthly income. What is left to satisfy other basic life style expenses along with some form of disciplined savings? The challenges in managing cash flows in this time are tremendous. We recognize that 70% of the drive in growth of the economy is a result of consumer spending . It is Robert De Lucia CFA of Prudential’s opinion that we will see a declining ratio of consumer spending to GDP along with similar patterns for government and financial sector spending. He projects that business capital investment, manufacturing, export trade and residential construction will fill the gap and grow the economy. He states that our GDP dynamic will mirror that of Germany and China. He feels that the need for households to continue to deleverage (reduce debt) in the face of declining incomes, potentially higher tax burdens and higher inflation is a reality. He sees a very slow decline in the unemployment rate.

     Legislation which will be interesting to track based on comments in the above paragraph is titled the “Sound Dollar Act”  which is before the House and the Senate for consideration. It would narrow the charge of  the Federal Reserve to addressing inflation and remove the dual mandate to address unemployment also. Rick Newman of Yahoo Finance writes that this legislation would restrict utility of quantitative easing which is counter to control of future inflation and a sound currency.

     The Affordable Care Act is constantly in the news. It is apparent that some of the court challenges to sections of the Act still have life. The establishment of insurance exchanges by state governments is developing much more slowly that originally projected. It appears that up to 17 states have flat refused to set up such systems. Many of the mandates contained in the Act will raise premium rates for sure. Elimination of preexisting condition under writing, no life time maximum limit on coverage, restriction on size of deductibles and  co insurance payments for qualified plans along with other essential health benefit requirement will have to be paid for some how.  We will begin to see the impact of all of this in 2013, but the significant effects will be on us in 2014.

     For those with coverage under the Medicare program, the Part B premium will increase from $99.90 per month to $104.90 in 2013. the open enrollment period for those with Medicare coverage wishing to adjust or change some of their coverage will end on December 7th.

     Perhaps just one last item addressing a positive side of our current economic situation exists in the commercial real estate market. It appears that vacancy rates in such cities as Boston, Minneapolis, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Denver , San Francisco, Portland and Seattle are declining. The business climate shows signs of picking up. Natural gas and propane prices are tame due to ample supply with the coming winter. This will be helpful for those household budgets discussed earlier.

     I extent a wish to all readers for a great Holiday Season!!!

For the Record:

DJIA                   13,025.58

NASDAQ             3,010.24

S&P 500             1,416.18

Suggested Reading:

“The Great Depression Ahead” by Harry s. Dent

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of November 2012

November 3, 2012

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA CFP RFC

Contact Information: leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

SPECULATION!!! This the nature of news reporting regardless of the source coming up just two days before elections. What about the fiscal cliff? What about healthcare reform? What about federal debt? What about growth in the US economy and the potential for vital job growth? What will a lame duck Congress do to address these issues? How does the result of Tuesday’s elections impact the actions of the Congress through the remainder of 2012? What do you think??

Bill Gross of Pimco recently said that there is no evidence that investments are being incented by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing. The money being created and freed up is elevating asset prices, but those prices are not causing corporations to invest in future production. It appears that lower interest rates are being used to consume rather that invest according to Gross. Investors need to recognize that asset and currency values rest on the ability of the economy to grow. We are not seeing this to a great extent at this time. It may be that future returns on investment will be severely stunted.

On the other side of these speculative issues, Robert De Lucia of Prudential suggests that we will see a fundamental shift in the US economy from consumption, government and financial services to capital spending, manufacturing, export and energy production. He projects that this trend is in its early stage and will extend well into the future and that the shift in investment to equities from the safety of bonds will be significant.  

On another subject, we find ourselves if over the age of 70 1/2, facing the calculation of RMDs (required minimum distributions) from retirement savings accounts such as IRAs and 401ks. The rules and the strategies available based on current law can be a bit complicated and do require consultation with a financial planner to be sure that the best advantage of the situation is achieved. While on this subject, it is important to note that our national savings rate is at 3% according to John Bogle of Vanguard. There have been several obstacles here other that our habit of heavy consumption such as inadequate retirement savings accumulation, equity market recent collapse, under funded pension programs and other inefficiencies practiced in the financial service industry. Once again, the guidance of a financial planner can help an individual navigate this ocean of savings challenges.

My speculation on activities of the Congress after elections are over is as follows:

1. Increase Federal revenues by modifications in the tax code and increases in some taxes.

2. Reduction of federal spending including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid along with countless special interest funding obligations included in the federal budget which represent political spoils. Congressman Ryan has identified over 50 of these.

3. A reintroduction of discipline in stewardship of the currency. This may require another look at the gold standard.

4. More rapid economic growth as a result of elimination of government barriers to industry.

Let’s see what happens.  

For the Record:

DJIA                 13,093.16

NASDAQ           2,982.13

S&P 500           1,414.20

Suggested Reading:   “Guide to High Performance Investing” by O’Neil Data Systems

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of October 2012

October 2, 2012

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA CFP RFC

Contact Information:

leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

     The Wall Street Journal Market Watch on September 18th summed up our economic status in a few sentences.  “The majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” National debt is at $16 trillion and the top 25% of wage earners pay 87% of all tax revenue. This is not sustainable. “Our entire fiscal and monetary policy is now based on one simple axiom: What we cannot tax, we borrow, and what we cannot borrow, we print.” What is your sense and felling over these statements?

     I happened to pick up on a veterans’ benefit of which I am sure not many are aware. A pension is available to qualified veterans to cover the cost of long-term care. If you have the need, check it out. While we are on the subject of health matters, be aware that open enrolment for Medicare begins on October 15th.

     US.News writer Philip Moeller tells us about a recent study which in the journal Health Affairs shows that the level of education is a predictor of longer life spans. Such factors as healthier life styles, higher incomes, better ability to handle stress, better social position and better management of chronic diseases are a direct result of higher achievement in education according to the study. Hum!!

     Insurance experts are telling us to reassess our home owners coverages. Although the market price of homes has declined by 35% since the market peak, the cost to rebuild a home after total loss has increased 40%. Check you dwelling limit. You want full replacement cost of the home and possessions. Take stock of your possessions and take photos of the property being insured both inside and outside.

     News from the Euro Zone has been mixed. One day there is agreement on a fix only to find negative discourse the next day. The Euro mess is affecting the global economy. The EU is continuing to experience stagnation economically with accelerating industrial decline and increasing unemployment. This status has causes export markets to the EU to decline causing the global economic head winds in both established and emerging market economies. The EU’s attempt to impose a common currency on sovereign nations without alignment of financial and fiscal policies of members is a significant problem for the continued existence of the EU. Global leaders need to come together on a solution here.  When will the next step initiate?

     The US equity markets are performing in a positive fashion to Federal Reserve actions of late. Prices are up or is it that the currency on which equity values are based is declining in value? Commodity prices are reacting to the value of the dollar. Why not equities also. What will equity markets look like when our government finally strengthens the dollar?

For The Record:

DJIA                   13,515.11

NASDAQ              3,113.53

S&P 500               1,444.49

Suggested Reading:  “Wealth and Poverty” by Steve Forbes

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of September 2012

September 2, 2012

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA CFP RFC

Contact information: leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

     Shawn Tully of CNN Money has done a respectable job of trying to describe where government spending is really going. Given the period in which we are witnessing political conventions, this information may be helpful. Most of the increased spending is not going into goods and services which government traditionally provides rising just 1% adjusted for inflation since 2008. It is the category of transfer payments which has exploded. Much of the funding is coming from new borrowing. Transfer payments during this period have increased by 34% to $800 billion per year. Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are major culprits, but other transfer payments have increased by 38% in that same period. The spending on unemployment, food stamps, environmental issues etc make up this sector. This is not a sustainable situation as long as GDP growth is so meager.

     I find it comical that the psychology of fear which is driving people to annuity products is becoming a failing strategy involving high fees and shrinking payouts. The Wall Street Journal Market Watch points out that the wise guys who operate these products can ‘t deliver originally implied benefit levels in this difficult economy. So where is the expected security of investment return with these products? For those concerned with fixed income returns, it may be that construction of appropriately timed bond ladders is a better strategy.  While we are discussing the insurance industry, it should be know that pressure is building to force insurance companies to make their rate filings public. Granted that under writing must be considered in the establishment of rate structure, transparency in this industry with its antitrust exemption is fare too meager. I would not be at all surprised if we see more AIG type failures as the future unfolds.

     It is clear that all which has been discussed above is related to the very low-interest rates we are experiencing. On the positive side, very low-interest rates make government borrowing cheap. However, those who depend on fixed income returns and other investors are being punished. Interest rates represent the cost of money. As interest rates go up, logically, bond and stock market values go down. The cost of doing business increases and spending on consumptive items declines. Clearly, a balance regarding interest rates, stability of the currency and growth within the business environment is essential to our future. Keep in mind that although GDP grew 20% between 2000 and 2010, the inflation factor was 27.6% during that period. Government has been a poor steward of  the currency. China, Japan, India and Brazil are experiencing the same dynamics to an even greater extent. How about the “Fiscal Cliff”? What a disaster if it occurs. This potential is a failure of the US Congress. The idea of them settling for the actions of a committee to put us in this situation by default while they avoid their obligations to act on these issues is a very sad commentary. What will the Great Depression  look like and how will it affect our lives and the lives of future generations if it happens??

For the Record:

DOWJIA           13090.84

NASDAQ            3066.96

S&P 500            1406.58

Suggested Reading:      “Power Ambition Glory” by Steve Forbes

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of August 2012

July 30, 2012

By Edward Leone Jr.DMD MBA CFP RFC

Contact Information:   leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

I just happened to read a great article by Charles Murray in the Wall Street Journal yesterday. He does a great job of describing the impact of capitalism on global economics and social well-being. “From the dawn of history until the 18th century, every society in the world was impoverished, with only the thinnest film of wealth on top. Then came capitalism and the Industrial Revolution. Everywhere that capitalism subsequently took  hold, national wealth began to increase and poverty began to fall.” “Capitalism has lifted the world out of poverty because it gives people a chance to get rich by creating value and reaping the rewards.” We currently find the capitalist system facing head winds created by government over regulation and corruption in my opinion. Many in our society feel that because you have prospered you have made someone else poor! What will it take to get our society back into the entrepreneurial spirit which got us to the great status we have enjoyed until recent times?

     Banks have positioned themselves in a more favorable status as a result of TARP and  other Federal Reserve activities. There are still concerns over the mortgage mess and housing prices along with potential loan losses. The low-interest rate environment has banks struggling to generate revenue. It may be that banks will engage in higher risk activities to generate revenues. For those of us in small business ventures, there are many head winds to growth and development. The following contrarian approaches to business development may be necessary to consider in future business engagements:

1. Prospecting for business is absolutely necessary.

2. Generating a positive income stream is imperative.

3. Tune out current events. The economic noise around us is temporary in my judgement. Think long-term.

4. Be aware of the future effects of inflation on pricing and purchasing power.

5. Valuation exercises will be a  constant challenge, but must be performed as current conditions change.

6. Risk aversion can be over done.

7. Move toward you projection for the future. Don’t plan with the present as a foundation.

8. You will be recognized in the future for your contrarian approach to business at a point in the future.

9. The more  you experience rejection in your approach, the more you can be assured that you may be correct.

     Above and beyond the necessity for a business plan as opposed to just letting businesses float to success, a personal plan for financial success is imperative. One area which I observe as severely lacking in the area of personal planning is estate planning. My concerns regarding deficient planning are as follows:

1. No estate planning in place is very bad practice.

2. No awareness of future legislation’s potential impact can be troublesome.

3. The appropriate title of property ownership needs attention.

4. Awareness of gift tax rules is important.

5. Development of appropriate estate planning documents is essential.

6. The need for correct beneficiary designations is imperative.

7. Periodic review of estate plans is essential.

     It appears that a more unified banking system is being considered in the Euro Zone. Considerations for plans to address bank failures, new banking regulations, commonality of  new fiscal rules and a tighter centralized European Union are likely in the works. Optimism is being reflected in equity market indexes   over this last week.

For The Record:

DJIA                         13,081.98

NASDAQ                   2,962.91

S&P 500                    1,386.01

Suggested Reading:   “Currency Trading for Dummies” by Brian Dolan

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of July

July 1, 2012

By Edward Leone JJr. DMD MBA CFP RFC

Contact Information:   leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

Well, the Supreme Court has delivered it’s decision on health care reform. I find it confusing, containing contradictions and political. I am not a lawyer, but it appears that the Court has just thrown this issue back into the lap of the Congress! We will have to continue our wait and see approach to a conclusion. It must be understood by all that medical insurance as we know it today is really prepaid cost sharing and not insurance in the purest sense.

One aspect of the health care issue which dates back to the Bush years is the conversion to the electronic health record. The mandate for conversion is targeted for 2014. According to Tania Karas, a writer for Smart Money Magazine, there have been many security problems with the electronic health records in existence now. In 2009, there were 420 security breaches involving 19 million patients. These kind of statistics will likely delay implementation in order to have better security against unauthorized release of information and fraud.

Aside from accelerating health care costs and college tuitions, the price of automobiles is also up. The average cost of a new car sold in the US is $30,748 as compared to $28,771 just a year ago according to the Journal of Financial Planning. We are also seeing elevation in grocery prices while gasoline prices have moderated a little.

It is reported that Social Security disability rolls have increase by 23% since 2007. It is clear to me that the state of the economy has much to do with this trend. Those who qualify and cannot find work, will certainly apply for the benefit which averages $1,111 per month. These individuals can also go on the Medicare program after drawing benefits for 2 years. Last year, the cost for the SS disability program was $132 billion to tax payers as reported by Bloomberg.

Many people are looking for investments which provide an income stream which is better than can be achieved in the investment grade bond market or with bank CDs. Such investment vehicles as REITs and ETFs are areas with this type of potential, but are not well understood by many. It is best to seek the advise of a fee only registed investment adviser over these matters since they are held to a fiduciary standard which causes them to act in the best interest of a client. Broker dealers are not held to this standard.

As we get closer to election time the rhetoric on the economy will turn up. It will be interesting to see if the Federal Reserve will take further stimulus action or hold the money supply and interest rates steady. The soap opera in Europe continues with daily fluctuations in the potential for resolution. These unknowns will further delay economic growth and job creation in my opinion.

For The Record:

DJIA                       12,880.09

NASDAQ                 2,935.05

S&P 500                  1,362.16

Suggested Reading:   “Point and Figure Charting” by Thomas Dorsey

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of June 2012

June 3, 2012

Contact Information: leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

     After the reported loss by J P Morgan Chase last month, there is much interest in the workings of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act which places regulations on the financial industry to prevent collapse of their institutions and protect consumers from abusive lending practices. The legislation establishes the Financial Stability Oversight Council which monitors the banking industry and hedge funds. This council through the Federal Reserve can increase the reserve requirement for banks if risk is identified, require banks to have a shutdown plan in the event of insolvency and break up banks that are too large. It appears to me that increases in reserve requirements has placed a burden on small banks which is forcing them into merger and buy out arrangements creating larger banks. The Volker Rule, when in place, will prohibit banks from owning, investing, or sponsoring hedge funds, private equity funds or any proprietary trading operations for their own profit. This is likely a flash back to the intent of the Glass Steagall Act which was rescinded in the 1990s. Derivative trades will have to be more transparent and transacted in public through a clearing house or formal  trading exchange.  This legislation will also monitor insurance companies to identify risk of default. Rating agencies such as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s will have to submit their rating systems for review by the SEC.  Much of the regulatory function is still in the draft phase. Who knows where this will lead. Is it too much or too little in the effort to prevent another crisis such as the one we experienced in 2008?

     According to CNBC.com, banks are being pressured to buy government debt in Europe. Regulators are allowing banks to escape counting government debt against capital requirements. What will happen if one or more of these sovereign governments cannot meet their debt service obligations?

     There has been much rhetoric in the media over the influence that speculators are having over commodity pricing such as with oil. We must take a step back to our knowledge of economics 101 to make some sense of this issue. The concept of scarcity tells us that there is limited ability to meet unlimited wants. Therefore choices must be made. We use the market system to do this. The dynamics of supply and demand set price levels. People will make choices based on cost and expected benefit to them. Highest benefit for least cost is the nature of the incentive for chosing. It must be clear to everyone that there are individuals on both sides of a speculative encounter. Some will speculate that prices will rise while others will speculate that prices will fall. One or the other will win sometime and lose sometimes. It is supply and demand which set prices in the market system.

     While we are discussing economics, it may be interesting to examine the concept of the Fiscal Cliff which is being presented in the media. This issue regards the 2013 tax increases and spending cuts which the US government will impose automatically if the Congress does not take any action. The concern is that this dynamic will cause GDP growth to contract signficantly causing another recession. This soap opera will unfold slowly in my opinion. We may not see any movement on the associated issues until after the election in November.

For the Record:

DJIA                     12,118.57

NASDAQ               2,747.48

S&P 500               1,278.04

Suggested Reading:

“All About Stock Market Strategies” by David Brown and Kassandra Bentley

Leone’s Money Monitor Monthly for the Month of May 2012

April 29, 2012

By Edward Leone Jr. DMD MBA RFC

Contact Information:

leonee@vzw.blackberry.net

     Much media coverage has been dedicated to our economy. Bloomberg News reports quoting a Tax Policy Center report that the President’s 2013 proposed budget will raise taxes for 27% of  US households. Media reports state that the Obama plan would raise taxes on the top 2% of tax payers and corporations. It is clear to me  that we must expose ourselves to a variety of sources in order to get the true story.

     The Social Security Board of Trustees reported last month that the Trust Fund will run dry in 2033 instead of 2037 as projected in earlier reports. After 2033, payroll tax revenue will cover 75% of benefit obligations. OASDI paid out $736 billion in benefits for 2011. These benefits went to 38 million retired, 6 million survivors of deceased qualified individuals and 11 million disabled persons. 158 million people paid the SS payroll tax in 2011 adding up to $564 billion matched by employers. The 2012 maximum income on which payroll tax is accessed will increased to $110,100. The payroll tax cut cost the general fund $103 billion in 2011. These are large numbers, but this program is not sustainable into the very distant future in its current form. What changes will occur and when?

     Fuel costs are another problem we are encountering. Our economy thrives on low cost fuels. The current price of petroleum products along with the European economic crisis and individual and business hesitation over future planning could present a further slowing trend in our economic recovery. The Great Recession represented a contraction about 1/2 the size of the Great Depression. Our problem is that we are not seeing a recovery measured by growth in GDP that is representative of other past economic recoveries including the Great Depression 2 years after which GDP growth reached 45% instead of the 2% we are now experiencing. Gasoline pricing increases is a hands on experience for all. It changes consumptive patterns and adds to costs for all products we purchase. We are aware of the geo-political issues which could threaten oil supplies along with issues over exploration, development and refining capacity within US borders. I do not believe that there are many quick fixes for these problems, but the longer we wait to take action, the worse conditions will become.

     Another issue which is on the front burner due to Supreme Court activity is Healthcare Reform legislation. I have written about this issue in many past blogs. We do need reform in the areas of delivery of care, third party pay mechanisms and access issues. We do not need to destroy the system we now have. I am seeing steps toward some logical reforms. According to Forbes Publishing, primary care physicians are very concerned about their situation. 50% say they may leave the practice of medicine if other opportunities become available. A creative movement toward a retainer-based relationship between patients and their primary care physicians is a very inventive way to mitigate many of the issues we face regarding access to care and quality of care. Cheap is not the answer. We must invest in our healthcare system. Savings can occur with delivery efficiencies and reductions in defensive medical practices along with individuals’ dedication to life chioces which elevate health status. Prevention is essential! 

For the Record:

DJIA               13,228.31

NASDAQ         3,069.2

S&P 500          1403.36

Suggested Reading:

Bureau of Labor Statistics Retirement Benefit Access     www.bls.gov/